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Autonomous Decision Intelligence · ARK Platform

ADI Country Profiles

Briefing Sheet

IMACSFrontier AI for Global Health Security195 Countries4 Assessment TabsMarch 2026
Download Original PDF

What is this?

Each Country Profile is a complete climate-health assessment for a single country, organized into four tabs. Start at /adi/countries to search or filter by WHO region, then click any country card to open its profile.

Assessment Workflow

1

Overview

How bad is it?

2

Hazards & Disease

What's causing it?

3

Vulnerability

Who's most exposed?

4

Response & Outlook

What's being done?

The Central Number: Climate-Health Risk Index

A unified score combining hazard exposure, population vulnerability, and health system capacity.

Risk Index = 40% Hazard + 35% Vulnerability + 25% (100 − Capacity)

Risk Tier Definitions

CRITICAL (≥75)

Country faces severe, compounding climate-health threats with limited capacity to respond. Requires immediate attention and resource mobilization.

HIGH (50-74)

Significant risk. At least one dimension is at critical levels. Prioritize for intervention planning.

MODERATE (25-49)

Manageable risk with existing systems. Monitor for deterioration.

LOW (<25)

Relatively resilient. Strong systems and/or low hazard exposure. Maintain current investments.

Header Context

The header also shows population (World Bank WDI), WHO region, income group, and an auto-generated situational subtitle that summarizes the action tier and alert status.

Population:World Bank WDI
WHO Region:Auto-populated
Income Group:World Bank Classification
Situational:AI-generated summary

Overview Tab — How Bad Is It?

Executive Summary

The risk score with its tier badge, count of active alerts, and any detected outbreaks. A cross-domain synthesis paragraph explains how hazards, diseases, and capacity interact for this country.

Risk Score

72

HIGH RISK

Active Alerts

4

Detected Outbreaks

1

Command Center

Breaks the Risk Index into its three components: Climate Hazard · Vulnerability · Health System Capacity

Climate Hazard

68

HIGH

+8% (24mo)

Vulnerability

64

HIGH

+3% (24mo)

Health System Capacity

42

MODERATE

-1% (24mo)

Decision Zone

Connects this country to the dashboard's Decision Engine. Shows the priority score, action tier, KPI drivers, and recommended actions.

Priority Score

72 / 100

Action Tier

ACT SOON

Primary KPI Drivers

High Heat ExposureMalaria IncidenceLow EWARS CoverageLimited Stockpiles

Country Brief — 25 Key Performance Indicators

All KPIs organized by role with scores and anomaly flags:

Hazard Exposure

Mean Annual Temperature

Extreme Heat Days YTD

PM2.5 Concentration

Drought Severity Index

Disease Burden

Malaria Incidence

Cholera Cases YTD

Dengue Cases YTD

Severe Acute Malnutrition

Vulnerability Profile

Population Under 5

Population Over 65

Piped Water Access

Open Defecation Rate

System Readiness

EWARS Coverage

Backup Power Availability

Climate-Resilient Facilities

Staff Trained vs. Target

Macroeconomic

GDP per Capita

Health Spending % GDP

Adaptation Investment Gap

Development Index

Narrative Brief

This country faces a HIGH climate-health risk driven by escalating heat exposure and malaria burden in a context of moderate health system capacity. Mean annual temperatures are rising (+1.2°C vs baseline), with extreme heat days increasing 8% year-over-year. Malaria incidence remains elevated at 142 per 1,000 in high-risk regions. While the health system has achieved 65% EWARS coverage, cold chain reliability is threatened by intermittent backup power (42% of facilities). Population vulnerability is elevated due to high under-5 prevalence and water access gaps. The adaptation financing gap is estimated at $45M/year. ACT SOON on vector control, heat adaptation, and health system resilience.

Decision Questions

  • • Should we act on this country now, plan for near-term action, or continue monitoring?
  • • Which dimension is the primary driver of risk — hazard, vulnerability, or capacity?
  • • What is the financing gap, and where should resources be concentrated?

Hazards & Disease Tab — What's Causing It?

Climate Hazards

Hazard Score

Composite 0–100. Same tier system. Includes sparkline and global context bar.

Climate Hazard Composite

68HIGH
8%

Global Context

Min
Max
12You: 6889

Temperature

Current Max Temp:42.8°C
Mean Annual:26.3°C (+1.2°C vs baseline)
Extreme Heat Days YTD:47 days
Trend:↑ 8% YoY

Source: ERA5 Climate Reanalysis · Monthly

Air Quality

AQI Level:MODERATE (76)
PM2.5:24 μg/m³
WHO Guideline:<15 μg/m³

Source: OpenAQ · Near real-time

Drought

SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index):-0.8
Severity:MODERATE DRYNESS
<−1.5 = severe drought; −1.0 to −1.5 = moderate drought

Source: ERA5 + World Bank WDI

7-Day Forecast

Heat Wave
Flood Risk
Drought Risk
Air Quality

Source: Platform-computed

Disease Burden

Disease Burden Score

Composite 0–100. Platform-computed.

Disease Burden Composite

58HIGH
5%

Global Context

Min
Max
8You: 5892

Malaria

Incidence per 1,000:142
Cases YTD:18,450
YoY Change:+6%

Source: WHO GHO · Annual

Cholera

Cases YTD:342
Outbreak Active:YES
Case Fatality Rate:2.4%
CFR >1% signals inadequate treatment

Source: WHO GHO · Annual

Dengue

Cases YTD:8,920
YoY Change:+12%
Severity:RISING

Source: WHO GHO · Annual

Nutrition

Severe Acute Malnutrition:12,300 cases
Stunting Prevalence:31%

Source: UNICEF Data · Annual

Intervention Type Decision

What type of intervention is needed — heat protection, vector control, WASH, nutrition support, or respiratory response? Prioritize based on which hazard or disease is driving the highest burden and which can be addressed most rapidly with available resources.

Vulnerability Tab — Who's Most Exposed?

Composite Vulnerability Score

Built from Exposure + Sensitivity + Adaptive Capacity sub-scores.

Vulnerability Composite (Exposure + Sensitivity − Capacity)

64HIGH
3%

Global Context

Min
Max
18You: 6488

At-Risk Populations

Children under 5, elderly over 65, pregnant women, outdoor workers, informal settlement residents.

Children Under 5

18%

of population

4.2M people

Elderly Over 65

6%

of population

1.4M people

Pregnant Women

3%

of population

0.7M people

Outdoor Workers

28%

of population

6.5M people

Informal Settlement Residents

32%

of population

7.4M people

Source: World Bank WDI, UNICEF Data

Water & Sanitation

Three indicators each. Thresholds: Piped water <50% = major gap, Open defecation >10% = acute WASH crisis.

Piped Water Access

47%

MAJOR GAP (<50%)

Open Defecation Rate

16%

ACUTE CRISIS (>10%)

Improved Sanitation

62%

MODERATE

Source: WHO/UNICEF JMP

Health Infrastructure

Five facility-level metrics. Thresholds: Climate-resilient facilities <40% = systemic vulnerability, Backup power <50% = cold chain at risk.

Climate-Resilient Facilities

38%

Below target: 40%

Backup Power Available

42%

Below target: 50%

Cold Chain Functionality

68%

Below target: 70%

Emergency Stockpiles

55%

Below target: 60%

Staff Trained (vs. Target)

72%

Below target: 80%

Source: WHO SARA, WHO GHO

Intervention Targeting Decision

Where to target interventions — which populations, which infrastructure gaps, and whether to invest in exposure reduction or adaptive capacity building. Focus on reducing open defecation, expanding piped water access, and hardening health facilities against climate shocks.

Response & Outlook Tab — What's Being Done?

A. Adaptation & Capacity

Capacity Score

0–100, reversed — higher = better. Tiers: STRONG ≥75, MODERATE ≥50, WEAK ≥25, CRITICAL GAP <25.

Health System Capacity Score

42LOW
1%

Global Context

Min
Max
8You: 4292

Early Warning (EWARS)

Coverage %:65%
Alert Lead Time:4.2 days
Forecast Accuracy:72%

Source: WHO IHR SPAR · Annual

Preparedness

Stockpile Availability:55% (MODERATE)
Response Capacity:48 / 100
Staff Trained vs. Target:72% trained

Source: WHO GHO · Annual

B. Climate Projections

2030 Projections

Mean Temp Increase:+1.6°C
Extreme Heat Days/Year:+45 days
Population Exposed:+3.2M

Source: IPCC AR6

2050 Projections

Mean Temp Increase:+2.8°C
Extreme Heat Days/Year:+92 days
Population Exposed:+5.8M

Source: IPCC AR6

Precipitation Trends

Variability Increase:+18%
Extreme Event Increase:+24%

Source: IPCC AR6

Disease Burden 2030

Climate-Attributable DALY Increase:+185K DALYs
Malaria Risk Expansion:+32%

Source: IHME GBD

Adaptation Financing Gap

Current Annual Investment:$128M
Required Annual Investment:$173M
FINANCING GAP:$45M/year

Source: UNEP Adaptation Gap Report

C. Active Alerts

Heat Wave

HIGH

Affected: Northern Region

Extreme heat alert active. Temperatures exceeding 42°C expected through next 7 days.

Disease Outbreak

CRITICAL

Affected: Central Region

Cholera outbreak confirmed. 342 cases YTD with 2.4% case fatality rate.

Water Crisis

HIGH

Affected: Eastern Region

Severe drought. Water availability at 60% of normal seasonal levels.

Air Quality

MODERATE

Affected: Western Region

PM2.5 exceeds WHO guidelines. AQI at 76 (MODERATE). Respiratory risk elevated.

Strategic Assessment Questions

  • • Is current capacity adequate for the projected trajectory? (Answer: NO — gap evident by 2030)
  • • What is the financing gap, and where is funding most urgent? (Answer: $45M/year; prioritize EWARS expansion & facility hardening)
  • • Are there active emergencies requiring immediate response? (Answer: YES — cholera outbreak + heat wave)

How to Read Score Cards Across All Tabs

The Five Components

Large Number (0–100)

The score. For risk: higher = worse. For capacity: higher = better.

Colored Badge (CRITICAL / HIGH / MODERATE / LOW)

Risk tier. Red = CRITICAL, Orange = HIGH, Yellow = MODERATE, Green = LOW.

Sparkline (24-month trend)

Line chart showing 24 months of history. Rising line in risk = deterioration. For capacity, rising = improvement.

Trend Arrow (Red ▲ / Green ▼)

Red up arrow = worsening. Green down arrow = improving. % change is shown alongside.

Global Context Bar

Country marker on min→max scale. Far right = among worst globally. Helps contextualize severity.

Data Quality Badge

Shows data coverage %. If <80%, a warning appears: "Data coverage: [X]% (warning: below 80%)".

≥90%: Excellent

High confidence in score

80–89%: Good

Adequate for decision-making

<80%: Warning

Consider supplementary sources

Quick Reading Guide

Risk Score ≥75: CRITICAL. Immediate action required. Mobilize resources and prepare for emergency response.

Risk Score 50–74: HIGH. Prioritize within planning cycle. At least one dimension (hazard, vulnerability, or capacity) is at critical levels.

Risk Score 25–49: MODERATE. Manageable with existing systems. Monitor for deterioration and maintain investments.

Risk Score <25: LOW. Relatively resilient. Maintain current investments but remain vigilant.

Sparkline rising (risk) / falling (capacity): Trend is worsening. Escalate response intensity.

Global context bar (far right): Country is among the worst globally on this metric. Consider global comparisons for advocacy.

Data Sources & Supplementary Features

Primary Data Sources

WHO GHO (Global Health Observatory)

Disease burden, malaria, cholera, dengue, nutrition, EWARS coverage, preparedness

Update: Annual (Jan-Dec)

World Bank WDI (World Development Indicators)

Population, GDP, health spending, water access, income classification

Update: Annual

IHME GBD (Global Burden of Disease)

DALY estimates, disease projections to 2030, climate-health attribution

Update: Biennial

ERA5 Climate Reanalysis

Temperature, precipitation, drought indices (SPI), extremes

Update: Monthly

OpenAQ Air Quality Database

PM2.5, AQI, near real-time monitoring

Update: Near real-time

UNICEF Data / DHS / MICS

Stunting, malnutrition, water & sanitation, at-risk populations

Update: Periodic (varies)

IPCC AR6 (Assessment Report 6)

Climate projections 2030–2050, precipitation variability, extreme events

Update: Every 7 years

WHO IHR SPAR (International Health Regulations)

Early warning capacity, preparedness, alert lead time

Update: Annual

Supplementary Features & Resources

AI Chat Assistant

Ask questions about this country profile. The assistant can explain scores, suggest interventions, and provide context.

Scoring Methodology

Detailed documentation of how each score is calculated, weighting logic, and data transformations.

Data Provenance

Full lineage of every data point: source, collection date, version, processing steps.

Data Vintage & Lag

Publication dates for each data source. Most recent: 30 days. Oldest: 18 months. Note: Climate & disease data have publication lags.

Confidence Intervals

For scores with sufficient data, 95% confidence intervals are shown. Enables uncertainty quantification.

Scenario Planner

Explore "what-if" scenarios. Example: "If we double EWARS coverage, how much does capacity improve?"

Access & Permissions

Index page shows 6 countries as preview. Full access to all 195 requires the adi.countries.full permission.

To request full access, contact your IMACS administrator or the ADI team.

Ready to explore?

Visit the Country Profiles Index to search 195 countries by WHO region, risk tier, disease burden, or hazard type. Open any profile to dive into the detailed four-tab assessment.

Go to Country Profiles Index